UNH’s Poll on Independence: 28% Wouldn’t Join the Union + Republicans & People 35-49 More Likely to Support Secession
The results are in from the second poll in two years asking the people of New Hampshire about their views on declaring peaceful independence from the United States. Last year, the Foundation for NH Independence commissioned a detailed poll from Survey USA which had 625 respondents and asked a couple dozen questions which measured people’s frustrations with the federal government in addition to their thoughts about whether or not New Hampshire should become an independent nation. It having been about a year since the previous poll, we decided it was time to do it again, though this time we had the chance to hire the University of New Hampshire to include several questions in their monthly “Granite State Poll“.
The Granite State Poll is a highly respected scientific polling organization in New Hampshire, and the cost wasn’t cheap so we zeroed in on the most important questions to ask. We worked with UNH’s Survey Center on the wording, which was changed somewhat from Survey USA’s. Three key questions were asked again and we added a new question to measure awareness. The UNH survey had 1,105 respondents, 76% more than the Survey USA sample. Unfortunately, the results were down across the board, in some cases by about half. Thankfully it wasn’t a total decimation, but advocates of NH Exit have a lot of work to do to increase awareness and persuade people to support peaceful independence. You can read the full NH Independence survey results from UNH here (PDF), which include demographic breakdowns.
The most positive overall result was the 28% who said “definitely not” or “probably not” to this question, “If New Hampshire were not already part of the United States, would you want New Hampshire to join?” However, that was down from 37% on a similar question in last year’s poll, which read, “If New Hampshire were not already part of the United States, it would be beneficial for the state to join, and be governed by DC”. This year, 46% of republicans said they’d definitely or probably not want to join the US, compared to 30% of independents and 11% of democrats. The demographic most likely to oppose joining the US was 35-49, with 35% against joining.
The big question though, asking specifically if people are ready to peacefully secede from the United States, did not fare as well as last year, though the question changed significantly from last year’s which was, “I would prefer New Hampshire to govern itself as an independent country” which found 29% strongly or somewhat agreeing. This year’s question was more explicit: “Would you support or oppose New Hampshire peacefully seceding from the United States and governing itself as a separate country?”, to which only 16% strongly or somewhat supported, about one in six people. The language of this year’s question reflected the language of CACR 32 which was the proposed constitutional amendment that would have put the question to a vote last year, had it passed the legislature. Opposition to secession was very strong on this year’s question, with a full 70% strongly opposed and only 6% somewhat opposed to peaceful secession, compared to last year where it was 37% strongly disagreeing and 21% somewhat disagreeing with being an independent country.
Of course, it’s worth noting here that we are comparing apples to oranges somewhat as it’s not really fair to compare results to questions that were different, as everyone knows that the way questions are asked in a poll can have an effect on the results. Regardless, one thing that remained true across both polls on the independence question is that the most pro-independence demographic is people 35-49. Last time it was 27% of that demographic supporting independence and this time 24% supported peaceful secession. Republicans were more likely to support peaceful secession, with 31% strongly or somewhat supporting, compared to 21% of independents and 2% of democrats. UNH’s survey also asked respondents about their media consumption. Of the 59 respondents who identified as Joe Rogan listeners, 38% said this question didn’t matter / they were neutral – by far the largest segment of people who didn’t care about this question. Only 44% of Rogan listeners oppose peaceful secession, but bizarrely, 80% of Rogan listeners said they would support NH joining the union.
The results were slightly better, as they were last year, for the question asking whether people support putting NH Independence to a vote. This year’s question was, “Would you support or oppose the idea of New Hampshire holding a vote to find out whether voters want New Hampshire to peacefully declare independence from the United States?” and 20% strongly or somewhat supported having a vote, down from last year’s 42% who said they strongly or somewhat supported the similarly worded, “Would you support or oppose the idea of New Hampshire holding a vote to find out whether voters want New Hampshire to peacefully separate from the US?” Again, republicans were more likely to support the vote with 31%, compared to 27% of independents and 8% of democrats. Ironic, considering all their talk about supporting democracy. Again, 35-49 year-olds were the strongest demographic supporting putting it to a vote, with 31% supporting. The next most supporting age demo was 50-64 at 22%.
Again, curiously, Joe Rogan listeners stood out from the rest of the respondents with 33% support putting independence to a vote, while the second most supportive media group was conservative radio listeners at 24% support. Again, Rogan’s listeners were much more likely than any other media consumers to say that they were neutral or it didn’t matter to them – 42%! Rogan’s listeners were the only media group with an insignificant number of people strongly opposed to a vote, only 8%. Also, more of his listeners supported the vote than opposed it, 33% to 25%. Every other media group has massive opposition to a vote on independence, as you can see here from the below breakdown. Results go across left-to-right from Strongly Support, Somewhat Support, Neutral/Doesn’t Matter, Somewhat Oppose, Strongly Oppose, Don’t Know/Not Sure, and the total number of respondents that identified as that type of media consumer:
The new question on this year’s survey was regarding people’s awareness of the legislation last year: “In March of 2022, the N.H. House of Representatives rejected a proposed constitutional amendment calling for New Hampshire to peaceably declare independence from the United States and to govern itself as a separate country. How much do you recall hearing about this?” While barely anyone heard “a lot” about it, interestingly it was liberals whose awareness was higher on this than conservatives – 61% of liberals had heard something about it compared to 39% of conservatives, though liberals were far less likely to be supportive of independence, with only 1% of liberals supporting declaring peaceful independence compared to 26% of conservatives. Overall, 50% of survey respondents had heard nothing at all about the constitutional amendment last year.
Finally, UNH included a cross-tab graphic showing the relationship between opinions on secession and the theoretical question about joining the union. Excluding the obviously confused 1% who support secession but would also join the union, there are 15% who both support secession and wouldn’t join the US. There are another 9% who can see the wisdom of not joining the US, but are probably too afraid to leave the abusive federal gang:
For the full demographic breakdowns, please see the full PDF provided by UNH that also lists the entire survey with all the month’s questions which also covered marijuana legalization, the debt ceiling, and immigration.
Hopefully we’ll continue to perform polling on a yearly basis to see how beliefs change, especially as the federal oppression worsens under this administration and whichever tyrant gets elected in 2024. If a republican tyrant is elected in 2024, will the support for secession flip along R-D party lines?