Thanks to the folks at the Foundation for New Hampshire Independence, we now have the results (PDF, web) of their first-ever scientific poll of the people of NH on various questions related to NH independence from the United States! Conducted by SurveyUSA, 625 adults in New Hampshire were asked 27 questions, so there’s a lot of data to go through, but here are some important takeaways.
First, 29% of all respondents either said they strongly agree or somewhat agree that they “would prefer New Hampshire to govern itself as an independent country.” This alone is tremendous news! Nearly one in three already onboard is an excellent starting point to begin persuading the rest of the population. Given only 2/3rds are needed to pass a constitutional amendment, we’re almost halfway there! Another 14% said they were “not sure”, so those people are already on the fence on the issue.
Someone may claim this is a fluke poll, but it’s actually in line with another secession poll conducted in 2021 by Bright Line Watch which asked people across the country if they “support seceding from the US to form a new regional union”. It’s not as good of a question for our purposes, as we don’t want to be in a union with the rest of New England, but it does give some insight into regional interest in independence. In that poll, 34% of New Englanders said they support seceding for joining a regional union! That result is right in line with the SurveyUSA numbers targeting only NH respondents.
An even more interesting takeaway from the NH poll is that 52% of republicans say they strongly agree or somewhat agree that they “would prefer New Hampshire to govern itself as an independent country.” Plus, 11% said they were “not sure”. When the historic, proposed constitutional amendment to peacefully secede came up this year in the state house, despite having several republican sponsors, the establishment republicans spoke firmly against it. Others quietly told us they agreed with the bill, but were too afraid they’d lose their re-election if they supported it. Ultimately only thirteen voted against the establishment motion to table the bill. Now that we have the encouraging results of this poll showing majority republican support for secession, perhaps some of the state reps will find a spine. Hopefully the newly established NH Independence PAC will be able to use this data to try to persuade them to stand up in favor of independence for New Hampshire.
As the Foundation for NH Independence pointed out in their announcement of the poll numbers, over time people’s opinions can shift on an issue once considered impossible, like shall-issue gun permits. They say in 1990 that shall-issue permits were less popular than secession is today, but opinions changed and now the supermajority of states have them. Let’s look at some reasons why the numbers are going to shift in favor of independence for NH:
- The federal government is going to become more and more oppressive, inflation is going to continue destroying peoples’ livelihoods, and war against peaceful people around the planet will continue. You can count on the feds to get more evil, regardless of who wins the election. Plus, large majorities of NH people already know the fed gov is bad, as shown by other questions on the poll:
- 79% agreed: “The federal government’s financial decisions and economic regulations hurt our livelihoods and could lead to inflation and bankruptcy.”
- 69% agreed: “Politicians in Washington, DC violate our rights more than they protect our rights.”
- 64% agreed: “Laws, regulations, and court rulings coming out of Washington, DC are incompatible with New Hampshire’s culture of freedom.”
- 63% agreed: “I trust my state government more than I trust the federal government.”
- Only 29% of NH respondents think that the feds, “have my best interests in mind when passing legislation.”
We already have roughly 2/3rds of people in NH who are frustrated with the federal government. As the feds continue to get worse, more and more will let go of their indoctrinated, nationalistic love of the United States and join the side of NH independence.
- Of people over 65, only 5% strongly support secession. Time is on our side.
- “National Divorce” has been trending in recent months and the conversations about secession are going to continue. Meanwhile people around the country are migrating to states that they consider more like-minded to their beliefs.
- The Free State Project, a migration of libertarian activists to New Hampshire, had record movers in 2021 and 2022 may top that number. Most of these people support secession and are active. The more people talk to their neighbors and friends about independence, the more will flip to supportive.
- Pro-independence activists in NH were energized by the historic proposal to put NH independence on the ballot as a constitutional amendment. New groups have been started, like the NH Independence PAC, which is just getting its feet wet. The now-decade-old Foundation for NH Independence has elected Alu Axelman, author and independence-superactivist to its president seat. With more liberty activists moving in and getting excited about this issue, it’s not going anywhere but forward.
Interestingly, only 39% of respondents agreed that, “If New Hampshire were not already part of the United States, it would be beneficial for the state to join, and be governed by DC.” Showing that even though some in NH aren’t ready to leave just yet, they sure wouldn’t want to join this terrible union! Further, 42% said that the question of secession should be put to New Hampshire voters, and 12% said “not sure”.
Whenever one speaks to people about declaring independence from the United States, the number one objection is the fear that the military will be used to attack the state that is seceding. This is an understandable fear, given what happened in the 1800s. However, this poll shows it has no basis in reality, as across all eight states that were polled, an average of only 6% would support military intervention if a state secedes. While 37% would support some form of “economic sanctions”, the majority – 57% – say the state should simply be allowed to leave. Americans don’t want to kill their own families and friends just because they want to leave the union and if the federal government gets violent with a seceding state, it will only undermine their legitimacy even further.
The New Hampshire Independence movement is just getting started and I’m excited that so many people are already supportive. If you love liberty and want to secede, you should be here in NH. Come help us make this a reality sooner rather than later. Time is of the essence. You can start by signing the petition!
You can see the full results including crosstabs (PDF, web) for yourself, so feel free to dig through the data yourself!